Foresight 2024: A Glimpse Into Tomorrow

Politics In The World (Part-B)

From the perspective of ongoing developments, the future of the Middle East is uncertain. The war between Israel and Hamas continues in Gaza. Hezbollah in Lebanon has also joined the conflict in some form and in the Red Sea, the Yemeni Houthi’s are attacking Cargo Ships. Iran is said to be backing many groups. Recently in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The US Secretary of Defense says that US-British strikes aim to disrupt and reduce the capabilities of the Houthi’s. These airstrikes are supported by Denmark, Canada, New Zealand, Netherlands, Australia and Bahrain.

The US and Britain have struck targets that they feel are a potential threat to regional and global security and safety. Their stance holds weightage or not. Opinion is divided globally about it.

On the other hand, although Israel claims that they have operational control over the north of the Gaza Strip, but at the cost of huge civilian causalities and their tarnished reputation. Because of this, Hamas fighters are resilient, and their claims are high too. Not to forget, there is still a huge network of tunnels by Hamas which is still unexplored, uncovered, and not destroyed. The US is trying to mediate in this situation as they are the only ones to whom Israel is listening. The US is urging Israel to de-escalate, and it seems like on the back end it is going on as thousands of reservists are pulling out of Gaza. Soon a peace deal is expected. Global pressure for an independent Palestinian State is also mounting.

Israel says its objectives are to fully eliminate Hamas and resolve the hostage situation, whereas the world is saying without a two-state solution and an independent Palestinian state, peace can’t be ensured for both Israel and Gaza.

The situation between Israel and Hezbollah is highly fragile. The situation could escalate to a full-fledged regional war at any time. Fighting for now between Hezbollah and Israel is mostly in border areas.

Although the assassination of Saleh-al-Arouri in Beirut by an Israeli airstrike was feared to have escalated the situation immediately between the two. It was prevented, luckily, as Hezbollah didn’t give any major response up till now.

But that doesn’t mean all will be fine in the future too. What future holds for Gaza, who will govern Gaza post-war, and what will happen to the West Bank, along with many more questions are still unanswered.

This agenda does not favor democracy or freedom.

European migration is on the rise. More than 270,000 migrants have arrived in Europe in 2023 and the numbers are only increasing. So asylum seekers, migrants and war would be core topics of elections in Europe.

Italy and Greece will follow strict rules across their borders and will deport all the illegal migrants and asylum seekers. The pact has already been applied to more than 50 non-profit organizations.

These organizations were claiming that they were helping unsafe Third World countries and were making sure to deliver their human rights, so potentially doing good deed. Although European Parliament elections in June agreed to increase pressure around the immigrants debate.

Far-right parties in Germany and the Netherlands are supporting this narrative fully. There is a fear that these far-right ideologies will take over Europe gradually. Then there is people’s reaction which counts and multiple other factors. But definitely politics will be the main focus.

It is obvious that the West could not contain Russia despite all their efforts. Ukraine’s Western-armed and Western-trained counteroffensive has not turned out well either. Russia’s President Putin is all set for another term. He is backed by powerful allies within and internationally also.

Despite all the sanctions, Iran managed to send military supplies to Russia. North Korea is also showing full support for President Putin. Russia is selling its oil at an all-time high and at cheap prices, and China is enjoying its benefits while Europe is suffering.

High profits are stabilizing the economy of Russia furthermore. The Western hegemony after WWII seems to be fading away. 2024 will also be a decisive year for the ongoing Ukraine war against Russia when Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will stand again for his presidential election office. President Putin’s victory is more or less certain although he has been in power for 23 years.

In the US, 2024 is going to be an election year. Odd predictions are coming in for this presidential match. According to surveys, President Joe Biden, who is expected to be the Democratic candidate once again this year, will have tough competition from the former Republican President Donald Trump. The House Republicans’ investigation into President Biden’s impeachment might hurt him along with his son Hunter Biden’s laptop leak issue.

Pakistan is approaching its elections on February 8th. Although the military establishment in Pakistan, known as kingmakers, is doing all they could to sideline the nation’s popular party PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) and bring along a person of their own choice.

Although in Pakistan, the popularity of the former Prime Minister Imran Khan is reaching new heights.

Seems like the people chosen could be left out of power but can’t be erased from their minds. Imran Khan was ousted as Prime Minister in April 2022 when a no-confidence motion against him succeeded.

After that, he was hit by 180 charges from riots to terrorism, and now he is jailed in a nine-by-11-foot cell. He is facing corruption charges and allegedly selling state gifts. His chances of coming to power again are thin.

Khan’s name is banned from the media, his party is facing arrests and harassment, all these are allegedly benefiting the opponent parties. But people still love him unconditionally, so many analysts are predicting that if PTI is restricted from taking part in the upcoming elections, the election won’t be fair.

The temperature in Pakistan is going to rise in the upcoming weeks of the election. It’s an open secret that in Pakistan, the army is considered the kingmaker. That is why all politicians want to be in the good books of the Army.

This time, the establishment in Pakistan has thrown its support behind Nawaz Sharif, who heads PMLN, so it’s pretty obvious what the result of these elections will favor. Although in Pakistan, people at the grassroots are quite in favor of Imran Khan according to National and International Media.

According to media reports, Pakistan is almost drowning in external debt of $140 billion. People of Pakistan are facing the highest inflation ever, which is Asia’s highest inflation. Food prices are rising in Pakistan by more than 38 percent year on year.

Internally speaking then Pakistani politics is being run by American priorities. Since China is emerging as a global power and Russia is becoming important with the passage of time, the no-risk policy of being pro-China, Russia block is what the West wants for Pakistan.

The strategic location of Pakistan and it’s constant up and down relations with India also plays a huge role. Current situation of Afghanistan and Iran is also impacting Pakistan’s elections.

In these rapidly changing times, no risks are taken by America, which is why Nawaz Sharif is the current choice of the West and the military establishment. Let’s hope for the best that civil-military relations this time go well, although many believe that there is no strong bond between Nawaz Sharif and the military, so things can turn worse at any point, keeping the past in view. After all, no Prime Minister of Pakistan has ever completed a full term. If Nawaz Sharif becomes the Prime Minister of Pakistan (which is quite obvious in the given circumstances), it would be his fourth term.

Undoubtedly, this will be the biggest year of voting in global history. Almost half a billion people from different countries will choose their political leadership through presidential, legislative, and parliamentary elections. More than 70 countries this year are exercising their voting rights. This includes some of the largest nations, including the United States, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

World observers and watchdogs will observe which elections were free and fair, which were partially free and fair, and which were totally rigged or tampered with from the start.

With so many people casting their ballots this year, it will be interesting to see how people exercise their voting rights and whom they select.

The importance of democracy has risen in these elections more than ever. These elections will determine the shape of future democracies and governments.

Economic stability and equality in the world are needed as people are aware of their rights. This time, people will lead the future of the world.

Although many minor and major issues will come under discussion and will shape the roadmap for the future from the United States to Indonesia and from Mexico to India.

Democracy will likely be put to the test in many election scenarios in different countries. 2024, the big year of elections, will be challenging and testing.

Many laws are changing, and many additions and subtractions are seen in constitutions. Although the behavior of governments towards their people is becoming more authoritarian and less democratic, which is worrisome.

In most countries this year, the youth of the world will come into play as new voters and will cast their votes for the first time. That is why these are times of change, and more care is required. Any disinformation or misinformation could harm the political process of countries. Informed decisions are required right now, and the mandate of the people must be respected once they have cast their vote.

Media and social media will play an integral role in forming opinions of people, so no disinformation should be given any credit. It’s crucial to see what is making headlines and why.

Whether voter turnout was high or not will be another interesting element to watch. Judiciary bodies of different countries will play an important role as well. Much will be unfolded and decided behind the scenes as has been done in the past, but observers say that this kind of practice will not be backed by people’s power, nor could the system forcibly enforce its desired results on people as people are demanding their rights all around the world more intensely than ever in recent times.

Opinion polls are shaping narratives, and the course of history will also influence people’s decisions.

Different political parties are choosing the path of clever and cunning politics.

Events of the world will deeply impact these elections. Too much sensation, turning politics into a soap opera, is another method that has been used in the past and will likely be used in 2024.

The picture of electoral Nemesis is kind of drama driven and staged by political optics, ambitions, and personal enmities.

A lot of confidence, overconfidence will be seen among candidates. Though clever politics will be preferred, a great deal of caution and trepidation involved in calculating and strategizing whether the risk would be worth it.

You will see many news outlets, tabloids, and even social media forums go bananas. The sad and honest fact is that even knowing all this, bad politics and clever politics will be seen more boosted.