Foresight 2024: A Glimpse Into Tomorrow

Politics In The World (Part-A)

Politics In The World - (Part 1)

Undoubtedly this will be the biggest year of voting in global history. Almost half a billion people of different countries will choose their political leadership through presidential, legislative, and parliamentary elections, More than 70 countries this year are using their voting rights. This includes some of the largest nations including the United States, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

This will be seen too by the world observers and watchdogs that which elections were free and fair, which were partially free and fair, and which were totally rigged or tempered from the start more or less.

With so many people casting their ballots this year it will be interesting to see how people will use their voting right and to select whom.

The importance of democracy has risen in these elections more than ever. These elections will determine the shape of future democracy and governments.

Economic stability and equality in the world are needed as people are aware of their rights. This time people will lead the future of the world.

Many minor and major issues will come under discussion and will write the roadmap for the future from the United States to Indonesia and from Mexico to India.

Democracy will likely be put to the test in many election scenarios in different countries. 2024 the big year of the election, will be challenging and testing.

many laws are changing, and many additions and substractions are seen in constitutions. Although the behavior of governments towards its people is getting more and more authoritarian and less democratic which is worrisome.

In most countries this year youth of the world will come into play as new voters and cast their vote for the first time. That is why these are times of change and more care is required. Any disinformation or misinformation could hurt the political process of countries. Aware decisions are required right now and the mandate of people must be respected once they have cast their vote.

Media and social media will play an integral role in forming opinions of people so no disinformation should be given any credit. It's crucial to see what is making headlines and why.

Whether voter turnover was high or not would be another interesting element to watch. Judiciary bodies of different countries will play an important role also. Much will be unfolded and decided behind the scenes as is done in the past also but observers say that this kind of practice will not be backed by people's power nor system forcibly enforce its desired results on people as people are demanding their rights all around the world more intensely than ever in recent past.

Opinion polls are forming narratives and the course of history will also influence people's decisions.

Different political parties are choosing the path of clever and cunning politics.

Events of the world will also impact these elections deeply. Too much sensation, turning politics into a soap opera is another method that was used by many in the past and which will be used even now in 2024.

The picture of electoral Nemesis is kind of drama-driven and staged by political optics, ambitions, and personal enmities.

A lot of confidence and overconfidence will be seen among candidates. Though clever politics will be preferred though with a great deal of caution and trepidation involved, calculating and strategizing whether the risk would be worth it.

The US is passing bill after bill in support of military support of billions of $ for Ukraine and Israel.

You will see many news outlets, tabloids, and even social media forums go bananas. The sad and honest fact is that even knowing all this still bad politics and clever politics will be seen more boosted

Almost complete stoppage of port operations in Israel.

Navigation data reveals that ports of Israel are facing a blockade imposed by Yemeni forces on shipping for Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea and Arabian Seas to show solidarity towards Gaza. The website Marine Traffic showed that one cargo ship entered the port of Eilat in December 2023, and one oil tanker during January 2024. The port of Ashkelon did not receive any ships in December 2023 and received two ships in January 2024.

The current situation in Europe

A glance at France, where protesting farmers collected and destroyed imported products in markets. More than 1000 tractors blocked the largest airport in Germany (Frankfurt) on February 3rd, 2024.

Demonstrations by farmers in Germany, France, Dutch and -are speeding up. European farmers stage new waves of protest. The farmer protest even stretched across the English Channels to the U.K. for a few weeks. The EU wants to become carbon neutral by 2050 so it wants to cut down greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 in comparison with the levels in 1990. European Union has strong opinions about the global environment and takes pride in making policies to safeguard the environment. Many climate policies put forward by the EU are facing reactions. Farmers' protest is one of those reactions. The European Commission is planning to scrap a plan to halve pesticide use. Also wants to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% in the near future. The farmers however are questioning these policies and calling them unfair. Analysts fear that recent protests seen by farmers are just the tip of the iceberg as further clashes could be worse.

Farmers do not have access anymore to cheap money and loan options. Banks are more reluctant than ever to lend money to small farmers. The farmer receiving of agricultural products has declined by 9%. The subsidies to the farmers are declining. Foreign food imports are also challenging the local industry of farming.

The US earlier banned Russia's oil exports after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but now the import of Russian oil to the US is recognized as legal. Although no sanctions have been lifted, but seems like on the diplomatic front, the ice is melting and things are moving in another direction than before.

The oil cargo that arrived at the OBF refinery in Delaware consisted of 10 thousand barrels of Russian oil. The mix was made at storage terminals in the Bahamas

According to Energy Information Administration spokesperson Morgan Butterfield, the compound does not violate U.S. sanctions because it was imported into the Bahamas before sanctions were imposed in March 2022. Before it was imported to the U.S., it was made into a blend mixed with other varieties.

At the same time, Butterfield noted that the importer stated in customs documents that the oil cargo for the PBF refinery was partly of Russian origin.

The US and Afghanistan

The US wants to open a consulate in Afghanistan, but the Taliban are saying they will take time and decide whether to open the US consulate in Afghanistan or not. Strange times for sure, not to forget, in 2021 on 30th August, the US exited Afghanistan. They were forced by the moment into crisis. Afghanistan has been governed by the Taliban for two years. Afghanistan says that it is ready to work with the US but sections must go and its status must be recognized. Let's see in the coming days where Afghanistan stands in changing world order and emerging a new multi-polar world.

NATO Countries' new development

NATO countries are about to form a naval group in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Danish frigate F361 Iver Huitfeldt entered the Mediterranean, and the French UDC L9015 Dixmude had already arrived in Malta.

NATO leaders highlight progress to Increase defense and deterrence. NATO member countries are increasing. In America former President Trump and current President Biden are divided on the role the US will play in NATO. Stoltenberg warned member countries of NATO against a wedge to be driven between the United States and other NATO countries members.

Concerns have spread about Washington's commitment to its allies if President Trump returns to the office of presidency after the election. Former President Trump while doing his election campaign said, Quoting: "If he wins the election he would encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want" to NATO member countries.

Democratic President Biden has branded Republican candidate former President Trump's remarks, Quoting: "dangerous and un-American".

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has attended a meeting of the North Atlantic Council with the NATO defense ministers. The session took place at the Alliance's headquarters in Brussels Germany. 18 out of 31 NATO member countries will spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense. Poland and the United States are expected to lead NATO's defense spending as a percentage of each country's GDP. Luxembourg will likely spend the least amount of its GDP on defense.

BRICS

BRICS is reshuffling the world order. BRICS is welcoming new members. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates have joined BRICS. China, Russia, India, and Brazil were the initial ones to form the forum back in 2006. The group was designed to bring together the world's most important developing countries together. This was to enhance the political, and economic threshold of the member countries and their role at the global stage. BRICS countries want to invite and add as many countries as they can. BRICS currently has 9 members but the number is only increasing.

Gaza and Isreal current situation and its effects on the whole world:

The daily death rate in Gaza after the October 7th attack on Israel by Hammas is higher than any other major conflict of the 21st century. The people of Gaza are starving. Now even the Rafah area is not safe. Airstrikes are still claiming countless innocent lives. Hamas and Israel are not reaching a mutual point that could ensure a ceasefire and hostage realize.

UNRWA funding is stopped by major key players. The effect of this decision will be evident by the end of February 2024.

However, Israeli security understands that there is no return for Israeli detainees from Gaza except through an exchange agreement.

Protests in Tel Aviv are rising, demanding a prisoner exchange agreement with the removal of PM Netanyahu's government. Iran is calling US strikes in the Middle East a strategic mistake.

Algeria has put its weight behind the decision to ceasefire in Gaza, so did South Africa and 153 other countries of the world, including China, Russia, Canada, Spain, France, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, India, Japan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Qatar, Lebanon, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Vietnam, Thailand, Tunisia, Congo, Tajikistan, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Vanuatu, Tanzania, Uzbekistan, Trinidad and Tobago, United Republic of Tanzania, Tuvalu, Switzerland, Ireland, Syria, Sweden, Sudan, Somalia, Rwanda, Suriname, Serbia, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Peru, Portugal, Poland, North Macedonia, Norway, Nigeria, Madagascar, Mali, Maldives, Morocco, Mexico, Libya, Latvia, Laos, Mongolia, Malta, Myanmar, Kuwait, Jamaica, Kenya, Honduras, Fiji, Finland, Greece, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, Gambia, East Timor, Ecuador, Estonia, Ethiopia, El Salvador, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Djibouti, Dominica, Central African Republic, Cuba, Cyprus, Costa Rica, Chad, Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire, Croatia, Chile, Bahrain, Barbados, Bhutan, Benin, Belize, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Andorra, Angola, Antigua, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Brunei, Guinea-Bissau, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Montenegro, Nicaragua, Niger, Oman, Saint Vincent & The Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone.

However, 10 countries are opposing the Ceasefire in Gaza, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Guatemala, Israel, Liberia, Micronesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, and the United States of America. The countries that abstained from the Ceasefire in Gaza up to now are Argentina, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Malawi, Marshall Islands, Netherlands, Panama, Palau, Romania, Slovakia, South Sudan, Togo, Tonga, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Uruguay.

Saudi Arabia has called on Israel to immediately stop attacks on the Gaza Strip. The Prime minister of Malaysia, talking to the media, stated his country's position on the Gaza issue. He said: "Our anti-Israel position has costs that we will bear for the sake of Palestine". From the perspective of ongoing developments, the future of the Middle East is uncertain.

(To be continued in next chapter)