Foresight 2024: A Glimpse Into Tomorrow

On Going Wars And Conflicts In The World

When wars and conflicts are happening, hazards go beyond the wars’ human toll. It’s shocking to know that at least 32 live conflicts are present in the world according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker. The reasons for these conflicts vary, ranging from territorial disputes, corruption, mismanagement or dwindling resources, climate change, politics, and proxy wars, as well as regional tensions.

Millions of people are displaced because of these conflicts. The lack of resources and minimal humanitarian aid available in the conflict-driven areas have made the lives of people hellish. The absence of the application of law or international law, the development of more crime networks, along with rising violence, have disintegrated and dysfunctionalized societies one after another.

Migration of people from war zones is on the rise like never before. The loss of lives has become a new norm, and the destruction of infrastructure in conflict areas is rampant. One escalating war is between Russia and Ukraine, while another violent conflict is taking place in Palestine, where Israel is stopping at nothing to achieve its goals, despite continuous pleas and protests by the global community. However, little thus far suggests that Israel can eradicate Hamas. Israel has completely destroyed the infrastructure of Gaza, including the underground tunnels, but the broader political and social movement is still intact and gaining more followers every day. Armed resistance is still observed in Gaza while the occupation persists. Israeli sources claim to have killed more than 8,000 Hamas freedom fighters, while Hamas claims the opposite. Hamas still holds Israeli hostages, and according to resistance posts, very few of their fighters have been killed or wounded. Hamas also claims that the number of Israeli soldiers killed is significantly higher than what their media is reporting. Hamas remains operational. So far, 30,000 civilians have lost their lives, with most being women and children. Thousands are buried under the rubble of their homes. Gaza is facing starvation as aid entry is mostly prohibited. The atrocities of this war have created a new wave of immigrants, and many believe it will breed another generation of freedom fighters. The situation in Gaza is so horrifying that it can’t even be called a nightmare; it’s much worse than that. Negotiations for a ceasefire have been unsuccessful thus far. However, in the coming days, power players in the war theater suggest that a long-term ceasefire, along with a hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoner release, is likely to occur.

Voices advocating for an independent Palestinian state are growing stronger inside Palestine and around the globe. On the other hand, more right-wing supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are rejecting the right to Palestinian statehood. However, not all are alike, as many Jews worldwide also support Palestinian independence, believing it to be the only way forward in line with the two-nation theory concept. Currently, the situation in Gaza is in limbo. Palestinian pockets of crowds that sought refuge in Rafah’s safe zones or camps are somehow managing to keep themselves safe, although these safe zones are now being targeted by Israel. Humanitarian agencies in Gaza and Rafah are either not permitted to operate, or their operations are severely limited. Egypt, which shares a border with Palestine, is determined to keep its borders closed on the Gaza side. Palestinians, along with the Arab world and many other nations globally, are calling the siege of Gaza a repeat of the Nakba in 1948. In the 1948 Nakba, thousands of Palestinian citizens had to flee their homes, and their livelihoods and houses were taken from them. Many of these refugees ended up in neighboring countries at that time. What the world is witnessing in Gaza now is considered multiple times worse than the 1948 Nakba.

Neither the United States nor Iran and its allies want a full-scale war with each other, but proxy wars in small segments are ongoing over the Gaza dispute. It wouldn’t be wrong to say that Iran is a major stakeholder in this conflict. A U.S.-backed deal, in which Qatar, Egypt, the Arab world, and Jordan are playing key roles, has not been approved by Iran and can be said to be disliked by Iran. The same disapproval is seen from Israel, who has objected to many core points of any progressing deal. Under no circumstances does Israel want a two-state solution for themselves and Palestine. The world is evidently divided on the Gaza and Israel issue, with the Golan Heights serving as another flashpoint. The Houthis have emerged as another strong force in this entire conflict. Whether you like them or not, their significance cannot be undermined.

The most significant flashpoint is the Israel-Lebanon border, where Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged several missile fires, resulting in casualties reported on the Lebanese border as well.

The situation in Europe is also highly fragile. Russia has clearly stated that if NATO countries get involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, things will escalate beyond imagination.

Conflicts around the world are only intensifying with time, with little changing or improving thus far. In many parts of Afghanistan, small tribal wars are ongoing. Libya’s instability has spilled over into further conflicts, leading to the rise of extremism in the Sahel. Taiwan remains unstable, where one small mistake could escalate into a full-scale war. Haiti continues to be unstable and unsafe, while in the Democratic Republic of Congo, violence and ethnic conflict are on the rise. The question of who will control the maximum resources is complicating the situation in Congo further. Sudan is going through its worst crisis and struggles. The Nagorno-Karabakh enclave conflict and the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenian war are still fresh in memory. Ethiopia is also facing turmoil, with over 100,000 people losing their lives due to the conflict between the national government and regional forces in Tigray. Syria and Yemen remain major conflict zones, with the Karen conflict and the conflict in Rakhine State showing no signs of diminishing. The Kachin conflict continues as it is.

When violence disrupts, its effects linger for generations, spreading poverty everywhere.

The cost of any conflict, in the form of broken economies, piles of dead, massive displacements, and the absence of humanitarian rights, is too heavy to bear. Yet, wars seem to never end. For some large entities and groups, wars present great opportunities to make more money by offering debt-owned capital to unstable economies under the guise of saving them, selling arms and ammunition to both warring parties, and attempting to control all the resources of disputed territories. Some even profit from selling organs under the guise of organ transplants to the wealthy, exploiting the suffering of others.

The World Bank, in an article for The New Humanitarian, wrote that conflicts give birth to and drive 80% of humanitarian needs. The cost of conflicts at the global level stood at an enormous figure of more than $14 trillion. Just imagine that such an amount, which could end the world’s hunger more than 42 times over, is being spent on making more people poor, more lives lost, and more economies crippled.

In Yemen alone, due to nonstop conflicts, more than 8 million children are starving for even one meal. The civil war in Yemen between Iran-backed Houthi groups and Saudi-supported government forces has destroyed the lives of countless people. More than 350,000 people have lost their lives so far, 60% of whom died due to a lack of food and the proximity to healthcare facilities. 2.2 million children alone are suffering from a food crisis in Yemen. Malnutrition, diseases, and very difficult survival circumstances have affected over a million people.

In Syria, when the people demanded reforms, their voices were not heard, and the President of Syria cracked down on several small militia groups trying to bring down the already shaky government. This led to civil unrest and anarchy.

In Myanmar, even after 60 years, civil unrest is still peaking. Since gaining independence from the UK in 1948, the country has been dealing with armed militias, the repressive rule of the military, and civil war. The ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya Muslim minority is ongoing, with thousands losing their lives, livelihoods, and homes. Over 850,000 Rohingya refugees have fled the country seeking survival. The most vulnerable segments of society—babies, children, the elderly, pregnant women, and the differently-abled—have had to travel for days to reach safety in Bangladesh. The refugee camp in Kutupalang, Bangladesh, is overcrowded, with half the population consisting of children and babies.

In Afghanistan, hunger is growing, with reports of families selling their children due to starvation. An estimated 15 million Afghan nationals have no stable source of food. Extreme weather conditions and poverty have led to the loss of loved ones and many children dying. Reports of people selling their organs on the black market to feed their children have also surfaced. A series of earthquakes hit northern Afghanistan in 2023, leaving many severely injured and without shelter, believed to be the deadliest in decades.

In Haiti, gangs kidnapped more than 300 people in 2023 for money. The a*******n of children and s****l violence has destroyed the social and moral fabric of Haitian society. People live in constant fear, especially after 80% of Haiti’s capital fell under the control of different gangs in 2023. Climate change and consecutive natural disasters have also significantly affected the Caribbean nation.

In Ukraine, things aren’t smooth either after the full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. In Europe alone, almost 30% to 50% of refugees from Ukraine seek refuge. The education of children in war zones is at stake, including the children of Ukraine whose studies have been disrupted. Factors contributing to the misery of Ukrainian refugees could be legal, administrative, and language barriers. There are not enough schools in host countries, and many lack sufficient educators to teach the children.

A study was conducted by the Institute for Peace and Economics in mid-2023. According to this study, almost a quarter of a million people died in conflicts around the globe in 2022.

More war theaters are likely to open. Houthi rebels are stepping up Red Sea attacks on global shipping, Iran is escalating proxy attacks, and US forces in the Mediterranean are targeting meaningful attacks. Wildcards and unintended consequences are unfolding on the world stage.

In 2024, the fronts of Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are still burning. It seems that diplomatic efforts to end wars are narrowing, and more world leaders are seeking military alternatives to achieve their goals. On some battlefields, peace-building efforts may never yield results. According to many war analysts, 10 major conflicts might worsen in 2024. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine could enter another dangerous phase. The Ethiopian Prime Minister struck a deal with rebels in 2022 to end the Tigray war, but the future of the region is uncertain, with violations of the treaty occurring on a daily basis.

In 2023, Azerbaijan took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, but Armenians in this enclave are not backing off either.

Wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen seem to be enduring with no hope for an end in the near future.

Colombia’s 2016 peace settlement and the Philippines’ 2014 deal with rebels in its Bangsamoro region are once again in turmoil. Iraq and Libya remain unstable, with power struggles ongoing. Many fear that Azerbaijan may seek new challenges from the Armenian border over the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Leaders in the Horn of Africa may seek new opportunities, form new alliances, and there could be a new turn of fate for Tigray as others forcefully try to gain control of the route from Eritrea to the Red Sea.

We cannot ignore the situations in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, among other disputed matters, as any spark could lead to full-scale war if not handled properly.

Several non-Western middle powers have become more assertive. Brazil, the Gulf states, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are all flexing their muscles and building new relations according to their interests.

The haunting and ghastly events in Palestine continue. Peacemaking efforts between Israel and Hamas have yet to make significant progress. Global politics as a whole seems more dependent on and geared towards war. In this moment of flux, things are changing, and new flashpoints are emerging.

The world is shifting its poles. Western relations with Russia have visibly deteriorated, while ties between Russia and China are deeply rooted. The competition between China and the US is witnessing new shifts. Following mediation by Iraq, Oman, and China, ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia are improving. Turkey and Greece are also mending fences after their dispute over the Aegean Sea.

Globally, the question of who is an ally of whom has become a big question mark. The blame game is ongoing, as are well-coordinated diplomatic efforts. In 2023, precise diplomatic efforts led to a summit where US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping were present. This summit had a positive impact on the global situation and bilateral relations between both countries. The world leaders agreed to strengthen safeguards in the world’s riskiest areas and work together on climate change and the environment. The Arab world, African states, along with China, Russia, India, and Iran, formed the BRICS forum, with the number of countries in the forum steadily rising.

Let’s hope that in 2024 and beyond, the business of war will see a downturn. Peace-making efforts will prevail for us and for generations to come. May frozen conflicts remain dormant and existing ones diminish at the earliest opportunity.