THE “PANIC OF 2020”-5
1009 Words
“ALRIGHT, JOHN, WE WERE starting to open up the country. And our testing was ramping up. Meanwhile, some areas had done testing which dealt with hundreds of people – but these were mostly people we already suspected as being sick.
“Then the outlier reports started coming in. Some California study said the virus had been imported much earlier than we thought, and a lot of people were already found with anti-bodies in their systems. Even though they'd never been sick at all.
“Several of our prisons had tested most of their prisoners and discovered a high degree of people who already had the virus in them. But never had as much as a sniffle. There was that aircraft carrier, where 50% of the infected never showed a symptom. Out of thousands on that ship, only four of them got it bad enough to be hospitalized. One died – which was a shame. But naval ships don't have the luxury of being able to do this 'social distancing' thing.
“And a study came in from the Bronx that said somewhere over 40% of that area had already contracted the virus – that same point of the young and healthy not having any symptoms. All despite being locked down and 'distancing' themselves.
“Our biggest problem was paying states to help cover their costs of the corona-virus. Because then they padded their corona-death statistics to add people who died, but weren't necessarily infected. One smart guy said – 'OK, take the death toll from last year and subtract it from this year's 'corona-19' death total and you'll see a more realistic count. Common sense started showing up.”
I found myself leaning forward on my chair to hear this. Finally it was getting good.
The President was relishing his one-person audience, smiling and gesturing as he continued. “So then we still had to test and do all these things. People wanted to get back to work. And the smarter governors simply got out of their way and let them.”
He sat back and paused for effect.
I bought in. “So? What happened when they did – was there some new outbreak?”
D. J. looked over and smiled. “Not so you could tell. We'd been chasing this 'herd immunity' around and the 'best experts' said we might be at this months – slowly extending the opening of various businesses as we could. Always fearing the worst...”
“And...”
“Nothing happened.
“Really.
“Eventually, we even stopped using the 'social distancing' requirement. And that was a funny one.”
“Funny? How so?”
“Well the 'social distancing' was a self-fulfilling prophecy. It probably worked some, but not as well as it was touted. If you did this and didn't get sick then it got the credit. If you got sick, then you must have not applied it right. Like some lucky charm. And those masks – just another 'charm'. They have always been for the few people who were already sick and had symptoms. Not some clothing fad. Well, unless the air is lousy with pollution, like China usually is.
“These scientists had no real exit plan to bringing people out of quarantine. It takes months to develop a vaccine – and the earlier corona virus vaccines don't have any great success record. Meanwhile, people gotta eat – and with nothing to do, they get a bit fidgety.
“Here's the trick those science guys didn't know: despite all these precautions, that virus was spreading regardless. And we already had herd immunity without even knowing it. There was simply no way to find out what we didn't know until we went through it.”
“Meanwhile, Sweden and Brazil bravely proved the opposite model – six weeks or 70 days, lock-down or no lock-down.”
I sat back and put my empty glass on the small table next to my chair. The President's glass was also empty. I don't know about my guest, but if I drank any more tea, I'd be swimming in it from the inside out.
About then, two dessert plates appeared. Each one had a neat slice of Molly's hot apple pie with a rounded scoop of cinnamon-vanilla ice cream melting on it's top. Each plate showed up for us in our now-empty ice-tea hand, while a fork showed up in our other.
Our two smiling faces said this was a perfect end.
Except I still had just a few more questions...
VI“Just cause you got the monkey off your back doesn't mean the circus has left town.”
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* * * *
“ALRIGHT D. J. – THEN you got the country back to work, and a few more people showed up as sick, but most everyone else survived, and there were still some unfortunate deaths – but these were almost all from already having underlying serious medical conditions.”
D. J. nodded. “Right. Actually, we had fewer deaths that year during the normal flu season, well below average and enough to not be a statistical outlier.”
“Then what do we get out of all this?”
“'There are lies, damned lies, and statistics', as Mark Twain said. Now, after all this, we have a working dataset based on real data. Now we have more treatments for the annual flu in general. And ways to save even more lives. We're working on rebuilding our own pharmaceutical manufacturing. And perhaps more than a few people have now learned to prepare for catastrophe before it happens. Six weeks of funds and supplies stashed is probably a good idea.
“Oh – and now we also know how long a free people will put up with enforced socialism.”
D. J. set his empty dessert plate on the small table next to him and sighed. “Really good pie. Thanks.”
“I'll send my regards to the chef. She loves to hear how people like her food.”
The President nodded. “I don't suppose we could arrange my dessert chef to come over for some training?”
I smiled. “That would be an honor. Hope she likes Nevada weather.”
He raised an eyebrow at this – since we were on my Midwestern cattle farm watching another quiet dusk settle.
“D. J., that's another long story...”
We were now sitting in the yellow light of the porch, which faded up as the sky darkened.
“And John, it seems I've talked this one out quite long enough already.”
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- Writer
