Nine lines of fate : a gambler

EP2：Mr. Wang’s kindness

Kevin traveled to Macau this time just to relax and originally planned to go home within a week. His parents gave him all their savings to use as a down payment for a house. He felt powerless when he thought that his parents' life and his own life were tied to this real estate bubble that didn't know when it would explode. He thought of his job in Beijing. He worked in investor service at a securities company and was responsible for solving a series of problems from investors every day. Due to the bad economic environment, more and more investors are losing money. In most cases, these investors complain and blame him instead of trying to solve the problem. The development of the company itself has also been greatly impacted by the economy, and he has almost no opportunities for promotion within the company. And if he wants to change jobs in this economic environment, the best result is that his salary does not decrease. In addition, as the economic prospects are worrying, people become more risk-averse. Now it is difficult to get married without a house. And if people take out a loan to buy a house, they will have a heavy economic burden for decades. The housing price bubble has been forming for many years, and no one knows when it will burst. After Japan signed the Plaza Accord, housing prices fell, resulting in the lost decade, and now mainland China may be facing a similar situation.

However, after trying his hand at the casino these days, he felt that money came so easily and that he could beat the casino's algorithm and make a profit. This HK$200,000 was already his salary for a year in Beijing, and he earned it in just one week. He believes that everything is due to his own strength, not luck.

‘If I can earn rent in Macau with my strength, I won’t have to tie my life to a bubble in the future,’ he thought to himself.

At this time, Kevin felt someone tap his shoulder, and he looked back.

I saw a middle-aged man with a slightly stout body. Although he was dressed in formal clothes, his bulging belly still made people feel that this man was a little greasy. His broad shoulders made him look somewhat trustworthy. His hair was sparse and a little shiny. Perhaps in order to make his eyes look bigger, he wore a pair of rimless glasses, and his small eyes shone with light.

'Young man, are you Chinese? You're so lucky.' Mr. Wang walked to the gaming table. Kevin looked back at Mr. Wang and found this greasy man annoying, so he took out 1,000 chips and prepared to send Mr. Wang away.

'Hey, that's quite generous. The chips here are relatively small. Are you interested in going to the VIP room with me?' Mr. Wang pushed away the chips, smiled and said.

Kevin's heart moved slightly. The VIP room of the casino is not something that can be entered casually. It requires millions of Hong Kong dollars in chips, or regular customers who have been in the casino for a long time can bring people into the VIP room. The advantage of the VIP room is that the bet limit is extremely high. The maximum limit can reach 5 million or even 10 million Hong Kong dollars, and the lower limit is correspondingly increased to HK$10,000. After several days of verification, Kevin believes that his betting strategy can make stable profits. He has long hoped to increase his betting volume and increase his income. The fact that the middle-aged man in front of him could take him to the VIP room showed that his status was extraordinary, and it was truly a God-given opportunity.

'Luck is also a part of strength. I have always wanted to see the VIP room, but why do you want to help me?' Kevin said.

'Hahahaha, I see you have won many times, so I will place bets with you a few times to see if I can turn things around.' Mr. Wang said casually, seemingly not caring about Kevin's doubts.

Kevin thought to himself, since the casino is full of surveillance and security, he shouldn't be interested in me or my chips. He is a VIP of the casino, so he shouldn't care about my chips. Following him to take a look at VIP room wouldn't be harmful. So Kevin nodded in agreement and came to the VIP room with Mr. Wang.

Entering the VIP room, Kevin began to observe the roulette table here. In fact, there are certain differences between these tables and those in ordinary areas. First of all, these stations do not display historical records, and you cannot see the frequency of high numbers and low numbers today. Secondly, the number of gaming tables is relatively small, and there are basically few customers playing roulette. Because it is hard to observe the frequency of high and low numbers on the day, the theory of mean reversion may not be that reliable.

Kevin thought of another way to improve the winning rate:

Manually record the result of the roulette tables. If there are multiple high or low numbers in a row, bet on the opposite. Increase the initial bet to HK$80,000, with a maximum bet of HK$640,000 and a minimum bet of HK$10,000. The rest of the betting methods are the same as before.

Profit expectation after losing and winning in one round = 5.60%*640,000-6.95%*150,000=HK$25,415.

Kevin looked at the time in the VIP room, which was 17:00 on February 17th. There are a total of 12 roulette tables in the VIP room. He carefully observed for about an hour that all the gambling tables switched opposite after six consecutive high or low numbers. He recorded the results of the 12 gambling tables that hour. Since his profit was only HK$200,000, he was very careful and just recorded it silently without placing any bets. Mr. Wang was also very patient and waited silently beside him without disturbing or urging Kevin. Finally, Kevin saw the V0196 table showing 6 high numbers in a row, and he knew the time had come...